The Kyyote's Howl

C’mon, it’s Rice.  What analysis, it’s Rice.  They’ve got nothing, and the Miners have an arsenal of weapons.  This is going to be a rout.  A masacre.  A laugher in The Don.
     That’s how I feel just trying to write an article about the UTEP-Rice game.  You can begin to get a sense of how tough it must be for Coach Barbee to keep his team focused on this game.  The two teams are on the opposite ends of the scale.  UTEP is 12-1 in conference games.  Rice is 1-12..  UTEP is in first place.  Rice is in last place.
     But, they don’t play these games on paper.  They are played on hardwood floors.  And, if the underdogs never won, nobody would ever go watch.  Underdogs do win, and it happens all the time.  It is what makes sports so compelling.  It’s David versus Goliath.  The Mouse That Roared.  The bigger they are, the harder they fall.  Everyone loves watching the High and Mighty get taken down.  Well, almost everyone.  The Philistines thought it sucked when Goliath took David’s stone to the head, and were so bummed when David lopped off Goliath’s head, that they ran all the way home.  We can only imagine how bad Goliath felt about the loss.

David Rudely Showing Goliath's Head To His Enemies

     Goliath made the critical mistake of looking past David.  He lost his focus, his concentration.  He needed to have had a coach telling him to be careful.  “Sure, you’re a giant, big guy.  And you’re a badass.  You’ve got a huge sword, that you whip around, whistling it through the air.  You have the very best body armor.  That’s just a punk kid out there.  But, and this is important, he’s carrying that sling.  You’re going to have to watch out for the stones, until you get inside on him.  Where’s your helmet?”
     You can bet your sweet bippy that Coach Barbee is working as hard as he can to keep his team’s eyes on the prize.  It should be a little easier to do after almost losing to Southern Miss.  His players have shown that they are a mature group, though.  They have had opportunities to suffer letdowns after big wins, but didn’t.  They have had opportunities to overlook teams near the bottom of the conference, like ECU and Tulane, but they did what they were supposed to do.
    I could tell you that the Owls have weapons of their own.  I could tell you about Rice’s coach having 30 years of experience, his twelve years at Cal, where he took the Bears to the NCAA Tournament 5 times and the NIT three times.  He’s one of the top 50 winningest coaches in NCAA Div 1 history, you know.  Unfortunately, he has used up his eligibility, and won’t be able to suit up.  That means that the players that have won one game in C-USA this season, the ECU Pirates have that unenviable distinction, will be taking to the hardwood floor in the Don Haskins Center Saturday evening.  The Miners team will most likely use them like a heavy weight champion uses sparring partners to prepare for championship fights.  Expect the Owls to be abused.
     The thing to remember if you are an Owl, or a Rice Owls fan, is that the smaller they are, the softer they fall.  The feathers should help.

I Took the Windex to My Crystal Ball

     After the games played on Wednesday and Thursday, I decided to try and clean the crystal ball with some Windex.  I obviously saw some things wrongly through the clouds when I last looked, on the 21st.

     The top four teams, UTEP, Memphis, UAB, and Marshall, play @ So. Miss., @ Houston, @UCF, and @ Rice, respectively.  I see all four front runners winning those games.  Houston hammered Memphis, and so UAB moved into a tie with Memphis with their win over UCF.

     When I look at the games after that, UTEP plays Rice, Memphis plays So. Miss., UAB plays Tulane, and Marshall plays UCF.  I see the top teams winning those games, too.   I’m beginning to see the Golden Eagles, having gotten so close to beating the Miners, ambushing the Tigers while they are still smarting from the Houston loss.  Confidence, or lack of, can make all the difference in the world, and Southern Miss plays a tough style of ball that will really mess with the Memphis style of play.  The Golden Eagles are bruisers, and the Tigers are already bruised.  UTEP and UAB will win their games.

     Then it gets a little tougher to see through the clouds.  That is when UTEP travels to Marshall, and Memphis heads on down to Alabama.  I think, when I squint my eyes, I see UTEP winning, and Memphis winning their game against UAB.  With the crystal cleaned, I see a fading Memphis losing to UAB. But, I still see UTEP beating Marshall.

       So, after the next three games have been played, the top four teams don’t change  their positions.  Upon further review, after those three games have been played, here’s what the standings will look like at the top of C-USA.
1. UTEP
2. UAB 12-3
3. Marshall and Memphis at 10-5

 The final games of the regular season have UAB coming to UTEP, where they will not have to go into overtime to get their loss, Memphis goes to Tulsa to prepare for the conference tournament by finishing off Tulsa’s disappointing regular season, and Marshall goes to Dallas to do what most teams do, and beat the Mustangs.  This still looks the same.
     At the end of the regular season the standings should look like this; Updated 2/25
UTEP             15-1
UAB               13-4
Marshall         11-6
Memphis        11-6
TU                 10-6
So. Miss.         9-7
Houston         9-7
UCF                7-9
SMU               6-10
ECU               3-13
Tulane           2-14
Rice               1-15

     Which brings me to my Conference USA Bracketology.  UTEP, Memphis, UAB, and Marshall get the first round byes. Let the tournament begin(well, you know, when it really does).  Here are the match-ups as I see them.

1(5). Tulsa versus 8(16). Rice–Winner=Tulsa
2(6). So. Miss. versus 7(15). Tulane–Winner=So. Miss.
3(7). Houston versus 6(14). ECU–Winner=Houston
4(8 ). UCF versus 5(13). SMU–Winner=UCF

Round two;
1. UTEP versus 8. UCF–Winner=UTEP
2. UAB versus 7. Houston–Winner=UAB
3. Memphis versus 6. So. Miss.–Winner=Memphis
4. Marshall versus 5. Tulsa–Winner=Tulsa

Final Four
1. UTEP versus 5. Tulsa–Winner=UTEP
2. UAB versus 3. Memphis–Winner=UAB

Championship Game
1. UTEP versus 2. UAB–Winner=UTEP

UTEP wins regular season Conference USA championship, and the C-USA Tournament for the automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament.  UTEP’s record entering the NCAA Tournament is 18-1 and 27-5.

UAB, based on their RPI, and their record of 15-5 and 26-7 overall receives an At Large  invitation.

Memphis finishes 12-7 and 22-11 overall, goes to the NIT.

Marshall finishes 11-6 and 23-9 overall, and goes to either the NIT or the CBI.

Tulsa finishes 11-6 and 21-10 overall, and goes to the CBI.

     Well, that’s what I see when I look into my crystal ball, I think.  It gets pretty cloudy in there, especially the deeper into it I look.  It got a little clearer after Wednesday’s games, and the Windex.   As I said, you folks take a look into yours and see what you can see.

    In the first half the Miners couldn’t hit water if they were in a lifeboat in the middle of the Pacific Ocean.  The sound echoing most loudly, was the sound the ball made as it clanged off the rim, when the Miners shot.  Let me give some credit to the Southern Miss team’s defense.  They were at least partially responsible for the Miners poor shooting as they forced the Miners to shoot jump shots from outside.  The Eagles came out ready, while the Miners seemed to be a little surprised at their intensity, and about a half step slow.  The Miners defense, even though caught a little off guard, was still good enough to keep the Miners right there with the  golden birds.
     After 8 minutes of play, the score was tied at 10, and the Miners were 3 of 13 from the field.  Three and a half minutes later, the Miners trailed by 6, at 13 to 19.  The Miners switched to a 3-2 zone, and brought Myron Strong off the bench.  He immediately made his presence felt with a steal and a layup.  With 5:38 left in the half, the Miners trailed the Golden Eagles 20-24.  Myron Strong made a shot, the Miners’ press forced a turnover and Strong dunked the ball, to tie the game at 24.  Derrick Caracter hit a short jump shot , and the Miners took the lead.  The Miners had stepped up their defensive intensity, and along with the spark Myron had given them they appeared to have gotten rolling.  They were starting to get the ball to Caracter in the paint, too.  But, the game was still close, and Horton’s three pointer put Southern Miss back in the lead, 27 to 26.  With 1.2 seconds left in the half, Culpepper was sent to the line to shoot two free throws, and he got his first points of the game.
     The second half got started with Moultrie hitting a couple of free throws, Culpepper forcing a turnover, and Caracter getting fouled.  Eustachy called a time out to settle his team down.  As soon as the ball was inbounded, Caracter took it up strong, and was fouled again, and sent to the line, where he hit one of two.
     The teams took turns either turning the ball over, or making layups.  Two and a half minutes into the second half, Arnette Moultrie stuffed one, and the score was 32-31.  Almost four minutes into the half, Randy Culpepper  hit two more free throws and got his third and fourth points of the game.
     The game wasn’t pretty.  The two teams were battling each other, hammer and tong, for every point, every rebound, and every basket. 
     Seven minutes into the half, the score was 36 to 35 Miners.  Then, Strong drove for a layup, Culpepper made one of his tomahawk jams, and made two more free throws, and with 10 and a half minutes left, the Miners all of a sudden find themselves leading  by ten.  A short couple minutes later, with Myron Strong’s three pointer, and a Stone free throw, the Miners led by 15 at 53 to 38. 
     Then, Southern Miss scored the next 9 points, and with the lead cut to six, Coach Barbee called timeout.  Four points later and with 1:25 seconds left in the game, the lead was down to two.  Culpepper hit a free throw, and missed the next one with 58 seconds left, but Caracter grabbed the rebound, and put it back up and in, and the Miners were up by 5 at 58 to 53.  Southern Miss’ Flowers hit a three point shot and pulled the Eagles to within two.  The Miners turned the ball over on the inbound, put up a shot that missed, and Jeremy Williams got the rebound.  He got the ball to Culpepper,who was fouled with 13.2 seconds left.  he hit the first free throw to make the score 59 to 56.  But, with  the chance to make it a two possession game, he missed the second free throw.  The Eagles grabbed the rebound and with time running out, Josimar Ayarza let go a three pointer.  Both he and Caracter fell to the flow, but no foul was called, and the shot missed.
     The Miners escaped with their eleventh win in a row, and a two game lead over Memphis who had just lost their game in Houston.  It was time to exhale, and take a deep breath.
     After the game, here’s some of what Coach Barbee had to say;

Coach Barbee after the So. Miss. game

The next teamthat will try to halt UTEP’s winning streak, and possibly spoil UTEP’s chances for an invitation to the NCAA Tournament is the tough Southern Miss Golden Eagles.  The Miners will be on the road for this one.  The Miners have won 5 road games in a row, a school record, but road games are always dangerous.  The Golden Eagles have been playing very well lately, having won 6 of their last 8 games.  The Miners are white hot, and haven’t lost a game since the middle of January.  On Monday, the Coaches Poll ranked them in the Top Twenty-Five, for the first time since 1992.
     Here’s what’s at stake in this game.  The Miners are playing to; 1) continue their record setting winning streak, including their road games winning streak, 2) hold onto their top spot in C-USA, 3) enhance their chances for an At Large Bid to the NCAA Tournament, if needed, and 4) hold on to their top seed in the conference tournament.  Southern Miss, on the other hand, would love to play the role of spoiler.  Also, don’t lose sight of the fact that the only guaranteed invitation to The Dance goes to the conference tournament winner.  A win over UTEP would be great for the Eagles confidence and momentum going into the conference tournament.
    The Eagles’ leading scorer is 6′ 8″ Gary Flowers, who averages 7.8 rebounds and 14.8 points in 31 minutes a game.  He is a solid defender, and the fourth best shot blocker in the conference.  Angelo Johnson averages 10 points a game.  Maurice Bolden, 6′ 10″ guard, adds 9.5 points and pulls down almost 6 rebounds per game .  Guard R.L. Horton gives the Eagles another 8.2 points per game.  Southern Miss’ Ayarza and Pelham add another 6 points each.  The Eagles have some depth of their own, and can bring scorers off of the bench.
     The Miners have arguably the best big man in the conference in Derrick Caracter.  At 6’9, 275 pounds, his strength, quickness and agility allows him to lay claim to the paint.  He is ranked third in the conference in rebounding and first in field goal percentage.  He has the ability to force taller, thinner big men out of the paint, and few can handle his quick scoring moves.  Arnette Moultrie, 6′ 11″ F,  grabs 6.9 rebounds and adds 10.6 points per game.  Jeremy Williams pulls down 5.2 rebounds and adds his 10.7 points per game.  UTEP’s biggest offensive weapon is Randy Culpepper.  Culpepper is averaging 18 points per game, and defensively he plays like his hair is on fire.  He is everywhere, in opposing player’s faces, jumping into passing lanes , disrupting offenses, and keeping teams off balance.  Six foot, five inch guard, Julyan Stone is the commander.  He is second in the conference in assists, and his 2.1 assists to turnovers ratio is the best in Conference USA.  Coming off the bench, Christian Polk adds another 10.7 points per game.  He, and Culpepper are always a threat to hit the three pointer if given the slightest opening.
     Southern Miss will try to match UTEP’s tough defense with their own.  They have the bench to help lessen one of UTEP’s usual advantages, the ability to wear teams down with their depth.  UTEP will try to control the the tempo by pushing the ball up court when they can, and perhaps employing a three quarter court press on defense at times.  I would look for UTEP to try and smother Flowers on defense, and try to force him to the outside.  I think Coach Barbee will use a combination of tough, in your face, man to man, and zone defense to keep the Eagles off balance and from getting into any kind of rhythm on offense.  The Miners will be in a dog fight.  But, in the end, they should be able to pull away, and win this one by a score of 70 to 63.

I was looking to see what the next few weeks might bring to C-USA basketball, and eventually to the conference tournament.  Even though the ball is crystal, the images inside were kind of cloudy.  Here’s what I think I saw.  I suggest you get yours out and see if you can verify what I saw.
     The top four teams, UTEP, Memphis, UAB, and Marshall, play @ So. Miss., @ Houston, @UCF, and @ Rice, respectively.  I see all four front runners winning those games.  When I look at the games after that, UTEP plays Rice, Memphis plays So. Miss., UAB plays Tulane, and Marshall plays UCF.  I see the top teams winning those games, too.  Then it gets a little tougher to see through the clouds.  That is when UTEP travels to Marshall, and Memphis heads on down to Alabama.  I think, when I squint my eyes, I see UTEP winning, and Memphis winning their game against UAB.  So, after the next three games have been played, the top four teams don’t change  their positions.  The final games of the regular season have UAB coming to UTEP, where they will not have to go into overtime to get their loss, Memphis goes to Tulsa to prepare for the conference tournament by finishing off Tulsa’s disappointing regular season, and Marshall goes to Dallas to do what most teams do, and beat the Mustangs.
     At the end of the regular season the standings should look like this;
UTEP             15-1
Memphis        14-2
UAB               11-5
Marshall         11-5
TU                 10-6
So. Miss.         8-8
UCF                7-9
Houston         7-9
SMU               7-9
ECU               3-13
Tulane           2-14
Rice               1-15

     Which brings me to my Conference USA Bracketology.  UTEP, Memphis, UAB, and Marshall get the first round byes. Let the tournament begin(well, you know, when it really does).  Here are the match-ups as I see them.

1(5). Tulsa versus 8(16). Rice–Winner=Tulsa
2(6). So. Miss. versus 7(15). Tulane–Winner=So. Miss.
3(7). UCF versus 6(14). ECU–Winner=UCF
4(8). Houston versus 5(13). SMU–Winner=Houston

Round two;
1. UTEP versus 8. Houston–Winner=UTEP
2. Memphis versus 7. UCF–Winner=Memphis
3. UAB versus 6. So. Miss.–Winner=UAB
4. Marshall versus 5. Tulsa–Winner=Tulsa

Final Four
1. UTEP versus 5. Tulsa–Winner=UTEP
2. Memphis versus 3. UAB–Winner=Memphis

Championship Game
1. UTEP versus 2. Memphis–Winner=UTEP

UTEP wins regular season Conference USA championship, and the C-USA Tournament for the automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament.  UTEP’s record entering the NCAA Tournament is 18-1 and 27-5.

Memphis, based on their NCAA Tournament history, and their record of 16-3 and 26-8 overall receives an At Large  invitation.

UAB finishes 12-6 and 24-8 overall, goes to the NIT.

Marshall finishes 11-6 and 23-9 overall, and goes to either the NIT or the CBI.

Tulsa finishes 11-6 and 21-10 overall, and goes to the CBI.

     Well, that’s what I see when I look into my crystal ball, I think.  It gets pretty cloudy in there, especially the deeper into it I look.  But, I like what I think I see.  As I said, you folks take a look into yours and see what you can see.