Lies, Damned Lies, and Statistics

I will try to keep the lies and damned lies to a minimum.  I have had some time to look over some numbers, though.  Let’s start with some contextual numbers.  The Hilltoppers were 18 point favorites.  Odds makers in Las Vegas and the money bet had decided that the resignation of Sean Kugler and the hiring of Mike Price would make little difference in the points and outcome of the game(this could be a lie, but I don’t think so and it is unintentional if it is).  The final score was 15 to 14 for the team from Western Kentucky, a single point deciding the outcome of the game.  So, for the mathematically challenged, the Hilltoppers were 17 points shy of winning by enough to pay off for those who had bet on them and given the 18 points.

Here is what leaps out of the numbers and most of you don’t need anyone to state the obvious, but I am going to point out the irony of it.  The Miners had averaged 201 yards of offense per game in the first 5 games.  The offensive genius of Mike Price raised the offensive output a mere 86 yards.  The Miners had averaged 14 points per game, and last night the Miners scored 14 points.  There were field goals missed that maybe should have been made, and perhaps the extra 86 yards could equate to the field goal and the extra points it could have produced.  But the offensive output in the number of yards produced aren’t the numbers that jump out at you, and don’t represent some complete reversal from what had been.  At best, the numbers would indicate a modest improvement in offense.

No sir, the big difference was on defense.  Yes, the offensive genius of Mike Price cut the offensive output of the Miners opponent just almost in half of what it had been.  Opponents had been averaging 502 yards per game of offense against the same defense that held the Hilltoppers to just 282 yards of total offense last night.  You have to let that sink in for a minute.  More importantly, the Miners had been averaging allowing opponents to score over 45 points per game.  Western Kentucky got 15 last night.  But, that could be a lie wrapped in a statistic, couldn’t it be?  Different teams average different points per game.  The ‘Toppers had only averaged 23 points a game in their first four games before the Miners.  There, I have cleared my conscience on that score.

Now, here comes the lies, maybe.  Because anyone who was in the Sun Bowl last night could sense the difference.  There was a difference in the team, and the fans in the Sun Bowl were a little different.  There was anticipation, and there were questions.  The defense had looked alive at the beginning of games before, and they looked very much so right from the start.  But, on offense, the Miners looked different from the very first play.  The Miners made it clear that the Hilltoppers had better back their asses up!  Then came the slobber knockin’.  No more brick wall.  You wanna go!?  Let’s go!  There was a very well manner, very sporting and sportsman like fight going down and the opponents were pretty evenly matched.  In my opinion, and maybe here is where the lies come in, but in my opinion that is the key, because what didn’t happen is that the defense didn’t eventually crumble.  It maybe a chicken and egg kind of thing, but the offense was mixing it up, fighting hard, and the defense wasn’t falling behind on the scoreboard.  As a matter of fact, it was the Miners offense that was getting the best of it.  The first half was the Miners, and even though not by a lot, it wasn’t a fluke either.  They were out there fighting like hell!  What ever was different, was different in the second half, too.  It was growing.  Instead of fading and getting upended in the second half, the defense was taking up the challenge to finish it out, just as the offense was.  The players were in to win it.  It was there, too.  Oh, yeah, it was building.    Maybe it was coming back would be more accurate, because it is more of a belief thing.  It wasn’t Frazier and Ali but for the first time in years we weren’t playing Sonny Liston to every other team’s Cassius Clay.  This was more like Sue and his Pap.  Maybe even like a couple of third graders.  There was a lot of fighting and maybe not a lot of real damage done.  I would caution the person who thinks this was a pillow fight at the Playboy Mansion, though.  There was serious blows being thrown, and landed.  My guess is that practices this week will have a much different energy than they had had the past five weeks.  This fighter, which ever one you think it is, is going to be spoiling for another fight next Saturday, and my guess is they are going to show it in the preparation and execution in practice and in the next game.  You know how they say the a football takes funny bounces?  Well, UTEP’s football has just taken a bounce.  We are going to find out if it is a fun one or a funny one in the next few weeks.   Buckle me in and double check that safety bar.  I want to take the ride!  Go Miners!

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